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Revaluation Shock in Poland: How Economic Exposure Shifts Voter Loyalty


economic shocks
voting behavior
swiss francs
poland elections
European Politics
AJPS
3 R files
5 datasets
1 PDF files
1 text files
Dataverse
The Political Consequences of External Economic Shocks: Evidence from Poland was authored by John Ahlquist, Mark Copelovitch and Stefanie Walter. It was published by Wiley in AJPS in 2020.

External economic shocks can profoundly reshape domestic politics. Using the 2015 Swiss franc revaluation as a natural experiment, this study reveals how material vulnerability to financial crises drives political preferences among Polish citizens.

🔍 New Data Source: An original survey conducted before Poland's 2015 elections identified voters most affected by currency fluctuations.

💡 Key Finding: Those directly exposed demanded more government intervention while simultaneously deserting incumbent parties. This paradoxical behavior created opportunities for opposition parties to strategically expand their coalitions without losing core supporters.

🌐 Real-World Implications: The research demonstrates how unexpected international economic events can be leveraged by political actors across Europe, particularly in countries like Poland within the eurozone.

📊 Methodology Highlight: A survey experiment embedded in a pre-election poll allowed precise measurement of voter reactions to this exogenous shock.

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