This article examines how autocrats strategically balance motives in shaping emigration policies.

Data & Methods: Using 50 years of bilateral migration data, the study analyzes expected emigration flows by calculating their level and destinations based on exogenous geographic and socioeconomic factors.

Key Findings:

• Autocrats restrict emigration when citizens disproportionately move to democracies 🏛️
• These restrictions protect against democratic diffusion risks 🔐
• Conversely, higher economic migration predicts autocratic survival 💼
• The findings suggest that migration policies serve as a tool for regime maintenance and stability management 📊

Why It Matters: This research reveals the complex relationship between emigration freedom, geopolitical strategy, and political system durability. It demonstrates how authoritarian regimes strategically manage population flows to consolidate power while mitigating democratic diffusion risks.