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Insights from the Field

Brexit's Unexpected Impact on Spain's Election


Brexit
Spain
Cross-National Electorate
Survey Experiment
European Politics
BJPS
1 Stata files
2 text files
Dataverse
Electoral Spillovers in an Intertwined World: Brexit Effects on the 2016 Spanish Vote was authored by Agelos Delis, Konstantinos Matakos and Dimitrios Xefteris. It was published by Cambridge in BJPS in 2020.

Introduction In an interconnected world, political events abroad can unexpectedly influence elections far away. This analysis examines how the Brexit referendum affected voting patterns in Spain during its 2016 national election.

###Cross-National Influence###

The study investigates the surprising effect of UK-originating political discourse on Spanish voters despite geographical distance.

Key Findings Using survey experiments with British-Spaniards and native Spaniards, we discovered:

* Brexit-related arguments influenced vote choice among dual citizens

* Messages framing Brexit as populist increased support for anti-establishment parties in Spain

* The influence operated through cognitive priming rather than direct political messaging

###Why It Matters### This research demonstrates how EU citizens' voting behaviors across member states can be affected by events outside their own country. These findings have implications for understanding the dynamics of cross-national electorates and offer insights into potential future electoral outcomes.

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