This study examines whether governing parties strategically time austerity policies to aid re-election chances.

Context: We analyzed over 1,200 welfare and tax austerity measures from thirteen Western European countries across twenty years.

Core Finding: Governments are less likely to introduce such measures as elections approach—a pattern previously documented in the literature. However, our analysis uncovers a counterintuitive twist: strategic timing—specifically postponing reforms until after an election—is most common among governments experiencing leadership change (new prime ministers).

Mechanism & Opportunity: We argue that minimal winning cabinets are best positioned to credibly shift blame for austerity onto the preceding government. This finding highlights how political opportunities and constraints interact.

Methodology: Our empirical analysis focused on identifying patterns in policy introduction timing relative to election dates.

This article advances understanding of electoral politics by directly analyzing tangible policy outputs.