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Vote Expectations Predict Elections Better Than Intention Polls


Voter Expectations
British Elections
Prediction Accuracy
Poll Comparison
Voting and Elections
BJPS
6 R files
1 PDF files
6 datasets
Dataverse
Vote Expectations Versus Vote Intentions: Rival Forecasting Strategies was authored by Andreas E. Murr, Mary Stegmaier and Michael S. Lewis-Beck. It was published by Cambridge in BJPS in 2021.

This study compares voter expectations and intention polls by examining eight forecasting models for British general elections. Data from ComRes, Gallup, and Essex Continuous Monitoring Surveys (1950-2017) provide a large sample of 449 months with both expectation and intention polling data. The findings show that vote expectation models consistently outperform vote intention polls in predicting election outcomes.

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