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<0xE2><0x80><0x9C>Reform and Representation: A New Method Applied to Recent Electoral Changes<0xE2><0x80><0x9D>

This study examines whether California's recent electoral reforms—specifically, the implementation of an independent redistricting commission and top-two primary elections—improved legislative representation by increasing congruence between legislators and their districts' voters.

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Data & Methods:

The research introduces a novel approach to measure representation congruence, combining voter classification on an ideological scale with multilevel regression and post-stratification (MRP) techniques that estimate average voter positions across numerous districts in multiple elections.

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Key Findings:

After validating this new method, the study demonstrates its application to California's recent reforms. Contrary to expectations of enhanced representation, evidence suggests these changes did not significantly improve congruence between legislators and the voters they represent. The findings challenge assumptions about how specific electoral innovations affect representation.

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Methodological Contribution::

This paper offers an innovative methodological framework—combining ideological classification with multilevel regression and post-stratification—for assessing representation congruence, providing scholars and policymakers a more nuanced understanding of the effectiveness of recent electoral reforms.