This study compares the partisan preferences of regular versus marginal U.S. voters by analyzing how exogenous factors—weather, election timing—affect voter turnout.

Marginal Voters vs Regular Voters

Over 20 percentage points more supportive* of Democrats than regular voters.

* Differences in partisan leanings influence overall election outcomes significantly.

This Means That:

* Election results don't always reflect the full citizenry's preferences.

* Marginal citizens, who may not vote due to exogenous factors, have systematically different political views than those who participate.

The article introduces a novel method for future research investigating voter behavior across diverse contexts.