Does how people feel about the economy influence their votes? While strong evidence shows a link between economic evaluations and electoral decisions, there's reason to suspect preferences shape those evaluations. This reversal challenges existing causal interpretations.

Researchers have tried to untangle this directionality using structural equations or instrumental variables with heavy assumptions. Unlike prior studies relying on panel data from Brazil that assumed exogenous shocks drive voting, this paper takes a different tack: design-based reasoning focuses on the study setup itself over complex modeling.

Analyzing voter behavior in Brazil during [time period], we find voters primarily respond to how their own economic situation is expected to change under incumbency—a finding supporting egotropic voting models.

This suggests political science research has been misled by traditional designs. The evidence points away from strong sociotropic effects.