📍 Tracing Rents and Voters

This study investigates how changes in local rent prices shape support for radical right parties, focusing on Germany—the EU country with the highest share of rental housing. The analysis moves beyond labor-market explanations for anti-establishment voting and examines urban development and rent appreciation as a distinct source of economic threat.

📊 What data was combined

• Individual-level, geo-referenced panel data linking voters to place over time
• A longitudinal dataset measuring the cost of rental housing at the postcode level
• National context: Germany, where rental housing is especially prevalent in the EU

🔍 Key findings

• Rising local rent levels increase support for radical right parties.
• The effect is strongest among long-term residents with lower household incomes.
• The relationship is particularly pronounced in urban areas, where rent appreciation is concentrated.

⚠️ Why this matters

Urban development and rising rents function, like labor-market transformation, as an important and underappreciated source of economic insecurity and social concern. These housing market dynamics have clear political consequences by fueling support for anti-establishment, radical right parties in affected communities.