The link between economic hardship and revolt remains debated. Conventional thinking holds that the poorest are most likely to fight, but evidence is mixed. This analysis examines why this variation occurs.

Focusing on severe group repression in Burundi during 1993–2003, we propose a "glass-ceiling" logic: Among the repressed, individuals with high productive potential may be most motivated to revolt.

Data sources included detailed case studies and historical records from Burundi. Our findings consistently support this glass-ceiling explanation while contradicting alternative theories.