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Democracies and Open Economies Had Softer COVID Rules, New Indices Show
Insights from the Field
policy intensity
CoronaNet
OxCGRT
Bayesian model
lockdowns
Comparative Politics
JOP
12 R files
37 Datasets
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Dataverse
Cross-NNational Measures of the Intensity of COVID-19 Public Health Policies was authored by Robert Kubinec, Joan Barceló, Rafael Goldszmidt, Vanja Grujic, Timothy Model, Caress Schenk, Cindy Cheng, Thomas Hale, Allison Spencer Hartnett and Luca Messerschmidt. It was published by Chicago in JOP in 2025.

🔍 Overview:

A new set of six daily indices measures the intensity of government COVID-19 policies across distinct domains, enabling clearer cross-national comparisons of how tightly governments regulated social and economic life during the pandemic.

📊 How the measures were built:

  • Six domain-specific indices: social distancing, schools, businesses, health monitoring, health resources, and mask wearing.
  • Combined two comprehensive event- and stringency-focused datasets: the CoronaNet COVID-19 Government Response Event Dataset and the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker.
  • Implemented a Bayesian time-varying measurement model to fuse information and produce daily scores.
  • Coverage: daily indices for more than 180 countries from 1 January 2020 to 14 January 2021.

⚙️ What the indices capture:

  • Aggregate summaries that quantify the intensity of a country’s policy response within each domain on each day.
  • Domain-level intensity (rather than a single aggregate score) to distinguish where and how governments concentrated their efforts.

📈 Key findings:

  • The new indices help clarify previous evidence about lockdowns and their role in preventing infections during the early pandemic period.
  • In analyses of policy adoption, countries with higher levels of democracy and greater economic interdependence tended to implement less intense policy responses.
  • The domain-specific, time-varying measures make it possible to trace policy intensity shifts day-by-day and compare policy emphases across countries.

🧭 Why it matters:

These measures provide researchers and policymakers with more precise, comparable tools for studying which policies were used, when, and how intensely—improving tests of policy effectiveness and explanations for cross-national variation in pandemic responses.

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