Introduction

Peace agreements are notoriously fragile in the post-conflict period, but measuring their inherent strength has been elusive. Existing approaches either lack nuance or rely on subjective weighting.

New Approach

Drawing from 1975 to 2005 civil conflicts data, we introduce a novel measure based on Bayesian item response theory (IRT) that captures latent agreement strength — the underlying durability not evident in surface-level provisions. This method quantifies agreements' resilience without simplifying or imposing external value judgments.

International Factors

Contrary to simplistic assumptions, our analysis shows how specific international influences—such as sanctions and mediation—can either bolster or undermine this latent strength.