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Insights from the Field

Top-Two Primaries Boost Moderation, But Elite Candidates Avoid It


top-two primary
ideological moderation
same-party challenge
regression discontinuity
California politics
Voting and Elections
PSR&M
1 R files
2 text files
11 datasets
2 PDF files
Dataverse
Extreme Districts, Moderate Winners: Same-Party Challenges and Deterrence in Top-Two Primaries was authored by Jesse Crosson. It was published by Cambridge in PSR&M in 2021.

California and Washington adopted the "top-two" primary system to combat uncompetitive districts and elect moderates. This change allows same-party candidates to challenge each other before the general election.

Key Finding: Same-party competition in primaries leads to more moderate legislators being elected across partisan districts.

Using data from 2008-2014 elections, this study demonstrates that districts with top-two systems electing via general-election same-party challenges produce significantly more moderate winners than non-competing districts.

However: Elite actors can strategically avoid these challenging primaries, limiting the overall moderating effect observed in broader political outcomes.

This research clarifies how institutional changes like the top-two primary impact candidate selection and demonstrates that policy effects depend on actor behavior.

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