🧠What Was Studied
A study of the Proud Boys' Telegram communications and the group's real-world actions over a 31-month period, investigating how different kinds of online speech relate to subsequent offline behavior.
đź“Š How Online Messages and Events Were Tracked
- A novel dataset of Proud Boys Telegram messages was compiled and analyzed.
- Messages were merged with the US Crisis Monitor's records of violent and nonviolent events involving group members.
- A supervised machine learning model classified and measured message content and trends across the 31-month window.
🔍 Key Findings
- Intensifying online expressions of grievances consistently predict later participation in offline violence.
- Motivational appeals—messages emphasizing pride, morale, or solidarity—have a reciprocal relationship with offline participation:
- Nonviolent offline protests predict an increasing share of motivational messaging online.
- Increases in both the frequency and proportion of motivational appeals online, in turn, predict subsequent violent offline activities.
- These patterns point to a potential online messaging–offline action cycle linking nonviolent protest, motivational online rhetoric, and later violent events.
🧠Why It Matters
Findings offer theoretical insight into how distinct types of online speech (grievances versus motivational appeals) are differentially associated with real-world collective action. The results illuminate mechanisms by which online rhetoric may precede and follow offline engagement, with implications for understanding and monitoring violent mobilization.
