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Finland’s Basic Income Raised Voter Turnout, Especially Among Marginal Voters
Insights from the Field
basic income
turnout
policy feedback
Finland
randomized experiment
European Politics
AJPS
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11 Stata files
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Dataverse
Policy Feedback and Voter Turnout: Evidence from the Finnish Basic Income Experiment was authored by Salomo Hirvonen, Jerome Schafer and Janne Tukiainen. It was published by Wiley in AJPS in 2025.

🔍 What the experiment tested

A randomized, two‑year Finnish basic income experiment (2017–2019) assigned a substantial group of unemployed adults to receive an unconditional basic income (BI). The central question: can a social policy reduce the link between low income and low turnout by changing how recipients experience the welfare state?

📊 How the evidence was gathered

  • Linked individual‑level administrative registry records with survey data to measure actual voting behavior and attitudes.
  • Analysis leverages random assignment to identify causal effects of receiving unconditional BI.

📈 Key findings on turnout

  • Unconditional BI raised municipal election turnout by about 3 percentage points on average.
  • Effects are much larger for marginal voters, with increases of roughly 6–8 percentage points among that subgroup.
  • The turnout boost persisted into national elections after the experiment ended, indicating lasting effects beyond the payment period.

🧭 What explains the effect

  • Evidence points to interpretive, bureaucratic effects tied to unconditionality: receiving BI altered recipients’ perceptions of government and their place in politics.
  • Recipients showed higher levels of political trust and political efficacy, consistent with an interpretive mechanism rather than short‑term instrumental motives.

💡 Why this matters

  • Results demonstrate a concrete policy‑feedback pathway: an unconditional cash policy can increase electoral participation among low‑income, unemployed citizens.
  • Findings have implications for theories of voter turnout and policy feedback and suggest that the design features of BI (not just income support) shape political consequences.
  • These results inform debates about BI policy design by highlighting political as well as economic effects.
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