Recent U.S. election law reforms increase signature requirements for citizen-initiated ballot measures, reducing their frequency and success rates on Election Day.

Data & Methods: Using state-level data from 2016-2020 and regression discontinuity designs to analyze the effects of restrictive laws.

These legal barriers also simplify complex policy proposals. Initiatives with less complexity are easier for voters to comprehend, aligning with their reluctance to gamble on unfamiliar policies.

Key Findings: Contrary to expectations, more restrictive ballot access laws lead to simpler measures and a higher likelihood of passage by voters who prefer clear-cut policy changes.

This counterintuitive result suggests that while restricting ballot access limits citizen engagement in policymaking, it paradoxically shapes which initiatives succeed—those with straightforward messaging.

Why It Matters: The findings complicate assumptions about direct democracy, showing how formal barriers can influence both the complexity of proposed policies and their electoral outcomes.