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New Dynamic Measure Better Predicts State Supreme Court Voting
Insights from the Field
ideal points
CFscores
IRT
state courts
judicial ideology
Law Courts Justice
Pol. An.
1 Stata files
8 Datasets
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Dataverse
Estimating Dynamic Ideal Points for State Supreme Courts was authored by Jason H. Windett, Jeffrey J. Harden and Matthew E.K. Hall. It was published by Cambridge in Pol. An. in 2015.

Courts of last resort in the American states are key settings for testing how institutions shape judicial behavior. A central input for that work is individual judges' preferences—ideal points—measured in policy space.

🧭 What Is Being Measured and Why It Matters

  • Focus: individual judges' ideal points on a common ideological scale.
  • Existing approaches: Brace, Langer, and Hall (2000) Party-Adjusted Judge Ideology and Bonica and Woodruff (2014) judicial CFscores.
  • Goal: improve measurement by combining distinct information sources to better recover judges' latent preferences.

🛠️ How Votes and CFscores Were Combined

  • Method: integrate Bonica and Woodruff's CFscores with item response theory (IRT) estimates of judicial voting behavior.
  • Scope: all 52 state courts of last resort, covering 1995–2010.
  • Key technical features:
  • Dynamic estimation that allows judges' ideological leanings to change over time.
  • Mapping of judges into a single common space for cross-court comparability.

🔎 Key Findings

  • Leveraging two distinct sources of information—roll-call votes and CFscores—produces a superior estimation strategy compared to either existing measure alone.
  • The combined measure outperforms Party-Adjusted Judge Ideology and CFscores in predicting judges' votes.
  • The dynamic, common-space estimate enables tracking ideological shifts within and across state courts.

⚖️ Why This Matters for Judicial Politics

  • The new measure provides researchers a more accurate, time-sensitive way to recover judicial preferences, strengthening inferences about how institutions and contexts influence state supreme court behavior.
  • As a superior predictive tool, it offers practical value for research on judicial decision-making and comparative analyses across states.
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