When people interact, one individual's outcome can be affected by others' treatment status across multiple networks (for example, online and face-to-face ties). Estimating the spillover effect for a specific network is essential to understand how influence travels, but unbiased estimation typically requires observing all relevant networks โ an assumption often violated in practice.
๐ When Multiple Networks Matter
- Spillover effects may operate through more than one network (e.g., Twitter and offline contacts).
- To attribute spillovers to a specific network, the analysis must isolate that network's effect from other, possibly unobserved, networks.
๐งช A Robust Problem, Not Ordinary Omitted-Variable Bias
- Bias from unobserved networks is shown to persist even when treatment assignment is randomized.
- That bias also persists when the unobserved networks and the observed network of interest are independently generated โ distinguishing this problem from conventional omitted variable bias.
๐ Tools Offered: Parametric and Nonparametric Sensitivity Analysis
- Parametric sensitivity methods that quantify how much unobserved network influence would change estimated spillover effects under explicit assumptions.
- Nonparametric sensitivity methods that bound possible bias without relying on strong parametric forms.
- These tools enable researchers to assess the potential influence of unobserved networks on causal conclusions about network-specific spillovers.
๐ Concrete Demonstrations
- A simulation study grounded in a real-world Twitter network illustrates how unobserved ties alter estimates.
- An empirical application uses data from a network field experiment in China to show the methods in practice.
๐งญ Why This Matters
- Failure to account for unobserved networks can lead to persistent bias in spillover estimates even in randomized designs.
- The proposed sensitivity analyses provide a practical way to evaluate and report how robust network-specific causal claims are to missing network information.