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Unseen Networks Can Skew Spillover Estimates โ€” New Sensitivity Tools Show How
Insights from the Field
spillover
networks
sensitivity
Twitter
field experiment
Methodology
Pol. An.
6 R files
3 other files
3 PDF files
Dataverse
Spillover Effects in the Presence of Unobserved Networks was authored by Naoki Egami. It was published by Cambridge in Pol. An. in 2021.

When people interact, one individual's outcome can be affected by others' treatment status across multiple networks (for example, online and face-to-face ties). Estimating the spillover effect for a specific network is essential to understand how influence travels, but unbiased estimation typically requires observing all relevant networks โ€” an assumption often violated in practice.

๐Ÿ” When Multiple Networks Matter

  • Spillover effects may operate through more than one network (e.g., Twitter and offline contacts).
  • To attribute spillovers to a specific network, the analysis must isolate that network's effect from other, possibly unobserved, networks.

๐Ÿงช A Robust Problem, Not Ordinary Omitted-Variable Bias

  • Bias from unobserved networks is shown to persist even when treatment assignment is randomized.
  • That bias also persists when the unobserved networks and the observed network of interest are independently generated โ€” distinguishing this problem from conventional omitted variable bias.

๐Ÿ“Š Tools Offered: Parametric and Nonparametric Sensitivity Analysis

  • Parametric sensitivity methods that quantify how much unobserved network influence would change estimated spillover effects under explicit assumptions.
  • Nonparametric sensitivity methods that bound possible bias without relying on strong parametric forms.
  • These tools enable researchers to assess the potential influence of unobserved networks on causal conclusions about network-specific spillovers.

๐Ÿ“ˆ Concrete Demonstrations

  • A simulation study grounded in a real-world Twitter network illustrates how unobserved ties alter estimates.
  • An empirical application uses data from a network field experiment in China to show the methods in practice.

๐Ÿงญ Why This Matters

  • Failure to account for unobserved networks can lead to persistent bias in spillover estimates even in randomized designs.
  • The proposed sensitivity analyses provide a practical way to evaluate and report how robust network-specific causal claims are to missing network information.
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