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Insights from the Field

Voters Reward Spending Growth And Fiscal Health In Gubernatorial Elections


fiscal health
spending growth
economic voting
unified government
Voting and Elections
SPPQ
Dataverse
Fiscal Accountability in Gubernatorial Elections was authored by Jeff Cummins and Thomas T. Holyoke. It was published by Sage in SPPQ in 2018.

Economic voting dynamics in gubernatorial elections are often assumed to focus solely on spending, but this study reveals a more nuanced voter behavior.

Examining State Fiscal Conditions (1982–2013)

* Analyzed gubernatorial election outcomes across multiple states during 41 years.

* Investigated the relationship between voters and state fiscal health indicators.

Key Findings:

* Voters positively respond to both overall fiscal health AND spending growth, rewarding incumbent parties for these economic factors.

* Contrary to previous research suggesting voter punishment of higher spending, this study finds that voters reward BOTH fiscal responsibility AND increased public investment in gubernatorial elections.

Policy Implications & Research Context:

* Enhanced accountability exists under unified government or when governors possess stronger budget powers.

* This nuanced understanding moves beyond simplistic models linking election outcomes solely to spending decisions.

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