Belief in alternative accounts of SARS‑CoV‑2’s origin—claims that the virus was created by humans, intentionally or accidentally—spread alongside the scientific consensus of zoonotic spillover. These alternative accounts fit the family of conspiracy theories because they posit secretive groups acting in self-interest and against the public good.

🔎 Daily Tracking of Italian Opinions (ResPOnsE COVID‑19, April–July 2020)

• Data come from the ResPOnsE COVID‑19 survey, collected with daily samples from April to July 2020 (N > 15,000) to monitor Italian public opinion during the pandemic.
• Survey measures included beliefs about the virus’s origin, political orientation, institutional trust, and exposure to political cues.

🧭 Research Questions and Design

• Documents the prevalence of alternative-origin theories and how those beliefs evolved during the pandemic.
• Tests whether political orientation explains endorsement of these theories via motivated reasoning or whether other factors are more important in the Italian context (where the origin question was not highly politicized).
• Investigates institutional trust as a primary determinant and examines how political orientation moderates its effects depending on conditions like cue taking and whether a supported party is in government or opposition.

📈 Key Findings

• Endorsement of human‑origin theories was observable among Italians during the study period, and its development was tracked over time.
• The association between political orientation and conspiracy beliefs cannot be attributed straightforwardly to politically motivated reasoning, given the low politicization of the origin issue in Italy.
• Low institutional trust emerges as the main factor driving belief in alternative accounts of the virus’s origin.
• Political orientation conditions the effect of institutional trust: under specific circumstances (e.g., cue taking; whether one’s preferred party is governing or opposing), it can amplify skepticism toward epistemic authorities among those with low institutional trust.

💡 Why It Matters

• Findings suggest that restoring institutional credibility—more than countering partisan bias—may be central to reducing susceptibility to pandemic‑related conspiracy beliefs. The results also highlight how trust, party cues, and governance position interact to shape public acceptance of scientific and expert authorities.