🧾 Main Question

Political elites are known to constrain democracies’ use of overt military force, but the literature has largely ignored whether those same elite dynamics curb the initiation of covert operations. Secrecy is often assumed to let leaders sidestep congressional oversight. The central question is whether elite opposition—especially from Congress—limits presidents’ ability to act secretly or whether it affects only overt force.

🧭 How the relationship was examined

The relationship is assessed by comparing US military force and CIA-initiated covert operations during the Cold War, focusing on variation in elite politics (notably periods of divided versus unified government) and institutional change in congressional oversight after 1975.

🔍 Key findings

• Elite political constraints—particularly congressional opposition—extend to the initiation of covert operations rather than being limited to overt force.
• The likelihood that covert operations are initiated decreases significantly during periods of divided government.
• There is no distinguishable trade-off between covert operations and overt military force: covert action does not simply substitute for visible use of force.
• After the 1975 congressional oversight reforms, constraints on covert operations became more uniform across unified and divided government as information asymmetries between majority and minority parties were reduced.

⚖️ Why it matters

These results reshape understanding of back-door bargaining and covert signalling: democratic leaders face domestic political costs even when acting in secret, so secrecy is not a guaranteed escape from elite constraints. At the same time, because covert operations remain politically costly, they can still serve as credible signals of resolve rather than a cost-free alternative to public force.