📌 What This Paper Addresses
A large literature links refugee presence to higher local conflict risk. This study argues that positive local effects of hosting refugees—especially through development—have been overlooked and may reduce, not increase, conflict.
📊 Global Subnational Data and Design (1990–2018)
- Uses global, subnational data from 1990 to 2018 on the locations of refugee communities and measures of civil conflict.
- Examines multiple conflict outcomes at the provincial level, including the onset of new conflict, the duration of ongoing conflict, counts of violent events, and casualties.
- Tests for selection bias with placebo tests and matching techniques.
🔎 How Development Was Measured and Triangulated
- Nighttime lights are used as a proxy for local development to identify conditions under which refugee presence is associated with substantive changes in conflict risk.
- Expert interviews supplement the quantitative analysis to help interpret mechanisms linking refugees, development, and conflict dynamics.
📈 Key Findings
- No evidence that hosting refugees increases the likelihood of new conflict.
- No evidence that refugees prolong existing conflicts.
- No evidence that refugees increase the number of violent events or casualties.
- Evidence that in many provinces, increased development associated with hosting refugees corresponds to substantively large decreases in conflict risk.
🛡️ Robustness Checks and Inference
- Placebo tests and matching are used to address concerns about nonrandom placement of refugee communities and potential selection bias.
- The combination of nighttime-lights analysis and expert interviews supports the interpretation that development channels help explain observed conflict reductions.
💡 Why It Matters
Findings challenge claims that refugees are a generalized security risk. In many contexts, hosting refugees appears compatible with local development and can even contribute to reductions in civil conflict, with important implications for policymakers, humanitarian planners, and debates about refugee protection and security.
