🔍 Tracking Attitudes Before Trump’s Rise
Panel data beginning before Trump’s candidacy (collected in 2011) are used to assess whether animus toward groups aligned with the Democratic Party predicted later political choices. Measures focus on sentiments toward Democratic-linked minority groups and on partisan identities recorded prior to Trump’s emergence.
đź“Š What the Evidence Shows
- Animus toward Democratic-linked minority groups measured in 2011 predicts subsequent support for Donald Trump, even after accounting for respondents’ party identification.
- That same animus does not predict later support for other Republican or Democratic politicians, nor does it predict increased support for either party as institutions.
- Animus directed at Republican-aligned groups likewise fails to predict support for Democratic elites.
🧠Why This Matters
These patterns indicate that Trump’s electoral support was uniquely connected to anti–Democratic-group sentiment rather than to generic partisan hostility. The evidence highlights how an elite’s incendiary rhetoric can translate pre-existing social animus into political allegiance for a specific candidate, revealing a distinct social root of contemporary political cleavage.
