Majority party floor control changes both what gets taken up in the legislature and how individual legislators vote. A rare, exogenous shock to party majorities provides a clean test of these effects and resolves conflicting results from earlier correlational work.
🧠What the Natural Shock Provided:
- A near 10% loss of members within the same legislative session created an unexpected change in which party held floor control.
- This natural experiment isolates the causal impact of majority party floor control from confounders that plague correlational studies, especially those focused on the mid-twentieth century.
🔍 How Effects Were Identified and Checked:
- The timing and scale of the deaths generated variation in numerical party majorities on the legislative floor that is plausibly exogenous to legislative preferences or agenda choices.
- Additional, correlational evidence spanning 74 years is used to assess external validity and place the experimental findings in historical context.
🔑 Key Findings:
- Majority party floor control leads to clear changes in the legislative agenda and in legislators’ revealed preferences (voting behavior).
- These effects are driven specifically by changes in the numerical party majority present on the floor, not merely by party labels.
- The impacts are strongest among Republican and nonsouthern Democratic legislators.
- Effects are more pronounced on the first (economic) dimension than on the second (racial) dimension of policy conflict.
đź“Ś Why It Matters:
- Demonstrates a causal link between who controls the floor and both agenda-setting and individual legislator behavior, clarifying mixed prior findings.
- Suggests that shifts in the numerical majority — even when brief or unexpected — can reorient legislative priorities and revealed policy preferences, with heterogeneous effects across party and issue dimension.
