This article investigates how American patronage initiatives interact with recipient states' capacity to manage resources, influencing the onset and intensity of civil conflicts.

Data & Methods: The study analyzes historical patterns across multiple countries receiving U.S. aid from 1945-2020 using qualitative case studies combined with quantitative regression analysis based on conflict datasets like COW peace index data.

Key findings reveal that patronage—often tied to political support for specific groups—heightens the risk of internal strife when paired with weak state institutions, while strategic resource provision can sometimes mitigate tensions. The paper argues this is a complex relationship where aid aimed at economic development reduces conflict likelihood in stable contexts but may inadvertently fuel unrest by empowering opposition factions.

Why It Matters: Understanding these dynamics helps explain U.S. foreign policy effectiveness and informs more nuanced approaches to international intervention, development aid, and peacebuilding efforts.