Why do autocratic leaders survive economic crises? The Argument

This article argues that natural resource revenues since the 1960s have bolstered autocratic resilience during economic downturns.

Economic Shift & Resource Effects

* The availability of alternative revenue streams provides autocrats with constant funds.

* This increases repression capabilities and credit access. These factors collectively shield leaders from crises that might otherwise spark regime change.

Historical Context: A Changing Landscape

* Extending the analysis back to 1875 reveals a strong crisis-vulnerability link in pre-20th century autocracies.

* However, this relationship weakened significantly after the 1960s emergence of substantial resource revenues.

Methodological Rigor

* Findings hold across alternative specifications and endogeneity tests using IV estimation.

* Deeper analysis confirms that economic crises' effects are moderated by natural resource income.

🔍 The Takeaway

This challenges the view of a strong, direct crisis effect on autocratic survival; it explains why some autocrats weather crises while others do not.