US workers displaced by imports often receive Trade Adjustment Assistance (TAA), a program designed to offset job losses. Alternatively, trade protection measures like antidumping duties aim to limit import competition directly.

However, this analysis reveals an unexpected political dynamic: TAA and protectionism serve as substitutes for policymakers seeking solutions to import exposure.

📍 Data & Methods: Employed the first geo-coded measure of US trade protectionist demands. Controlled for trade shocks across counties;

✅ Key Finding: Counties with prior successful TAA petitions call for less trade protection, even after accounting for economic pressures;

💡 Political Effects: Successful TAA petitions provide an electoral benefit to Democratic candidates seeking re-election;

👉 Why It Matters: Understanding this substitutability can lead to more effective government policies addressing import exposure.