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Insights from the Field

Refugees in Eastern Germany: Why Right-Wing Support Didn't Change But Voters Centered


Germany
East Germany
Refugee Allocation Policy
Sociotropic Model
Right-wing Vote Share
Survey Responses (AV scales)
Convergence
European Politics
CPS
1 R files
1 Stata files
14 datasets
1 other files
Dataverse
Strangers in Hostile Lands: Exposure to Refugees and Right-wing Support in Germany's Eastern Regions was authored by Max Schaub, Johanna Gereke and Delia Baldassarri. It was published by Sage in CPS in 2021.

This paper investigates how exposure to refugees affects right-wing political attitudes. We focus on rural areas of East Germany—a region largely untouched by immigration yet politically conservative—during the European refugee crisis.

📍 Data & Methods: Using electoral outcomes, individual surveys, and behavioral measures alongside a unique policy allocation process that followed strict rules.

This allowed us to analyze cause-effect relationships between refugee placement and voting patterns.

📊 Key Findings: Anti-immigrant sentiment was strong but did not change after refugees arrived. Overall right-wing support remained unaffected—no statistically significant shifts were observed across the population.

However, among individuals themselves, exposure appeared to moderate political views: both left- and right-leaning voters moved more centerward.

🔍 Why It Matters: These findings challenge earlier assumptions that refugee proximity inevitably increases right-wing voting. Instead, they support a 'sociotropic' model—where contact with foreigners influences attitudes within one's own group—but through the unexpected pathway of convergence rather than polarization.

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