Does building democratic institutions help dictators stay in power? We argue that these institutions partially deter coups by addressing concerns about a dictator's opportunism or incompetence. However, they do little to prevent regime-changing coups because plotters' goals cannot be achieved within the system.

Our analysis shows that democratic institutions reduce the risk of certain coups (those aimed at reshuffling leadership) but not others (regime-overthrow attempts). Specifically, these institutions only successfully deter less than 38% of coup attempts.