Decentralization policies are increasingly implemented in contexts where traditional models assumed certain political dynamics would apply, such as electoral accountability and citizen mobility. A new study examines how decentralization affects public service delivery in these non-standard settings by analyzing Ethiopia's partial rollout of decentralized governance under autocratic rule.

Methodology: The authors employ a spatial regression discontinuity design to assess the effects of decentralization in Ethiopia.

Decentralization led to notable improvements specifically targeting productive services like agricultural support, but had no discernible impact on social services including drinking water provision. This divergence appears driven by local leaders' incentives under decentralization reform to maximize citizens' production potential rather than their overall welfare or immediate needs.

Contextual Insights: The findings suggest that political economy mechanisms other than electoral accountability shape the outcomes of decentralization reforms in nondemocratic contexts. Local leaders may prioritize investments with higher economic returns, even if they neglect essential social services.