Headline:

How flawed are forecasts of U.S. Democratic presidential nominations? Our study reveals that fundamental factors, not early contest momentum, best predicted Joe Biden's eventual nomination win.

Introduction:

Standard forecasting methods focusing on campaign fundraising and early primary results often miss the mark when there’s no clear frontrunner.

Methods & Findings:

We replicated models from 1980-2016, which typically emphasize pre-primary variables like endorsements or Iowa/New Hampshire performance.

When applied to the chaotic 2020 primaries, these same 'fundamental' factors still proved most accurate for predicting Biden’s rise.

Key Insight:

Our analysis shows that core political fundamentals—such as candidate characteristics and broad voter support—are more predictive than campaign dynamics in early contests.

Takeaway:

This suggests 2024 forecasters should re-prioritize fundamental factors over short-term polling.