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How Accurate Were Election Markets During The Chaotic 2020?
Insights from the Field
Prediction Markets
U.S. election
Covid Effects
Election Forecasting
American Politics
PS
1 datasets
Dataverse
The 2020 (Re)Election According to the Iowa Electronic Markets: Politics, Pandemic, Recession and/or Protests? was authored by Thomas S. Gruca and Thomas A. Rietz. It was published by Cambridge in PS in 2021.

In this study, we examine how well prediction markets captured public sentiment during the unprecedented events of the 2020 US Presidential election. Using data from the Iowa Electronic Markets (IEM), a long-standing experimental asset market for political forecasting, our analysis reveals that despite widespread disruptions caused by COVID-19 pandemic lockdowns, economic recession fears, and nationwide protests, these markets continued to provide surprisingly accurate predictions across multiple electoral levels.

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PS: Political Science & Politics
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