This study investigates how local unemployment rates influence presidential election outcomes. By analyzing data from across the United States during recent elections, we uncover causal mechanisms linking economic conditions to voting behavior.

• Data & Methods: Examines historical election data correlated with county-level unemployment statistics using regression analysis and instrumental variables.

• Key Findings: Contrary to previous assumptions focused solely on national trends, local job markets significantly shape voter preferences. Unemployed residents are more likely to support candidates promising economic relief.

• Why It Matters: The findings challenge existing models of presidential voting by emphasizing localized impacts of unemployment and provide nuanced insights into how economic distress translates into electoral behavior.