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Immigrant Threat Perceptions and National Belonging Shifted 2016 Election Choices
Insights from the Field
Immigrant Threat
American Identity
2016 Election
Voting Behavior
Migration Citizenship
Pol. Behav.
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1 datasets
Dataverse
Perceptions of Immigrant Threat, American Identity, and Vote Choice in the 2016 U.S. Presidential Election was authored by James Garand, Dan Qi and Max Magaña. It was published by Springer in Pol. Behav. in 2022.

### Title: Perception of Immigrant Threat, American Identity, and Vote Choice in the 2016 U.S. Presidential Election

#### Introduction:

This article examines how perceptions of immigrant threat influenced voting behavior during a pivotal moment in American politics.

#### The Context:

The rise of anti-immigrant sentiment preceding the 2016 election created fertile ground for examining its relationship with broader political attitudes.

#### What Was Measured:

Researchers surveyed voters across battleground states to gauge their views on immigrants and their sense of national belonging.

📊 Data & Methods: A representative survey was conducted among likely voters in key electoral states during the final weeks leading up to Election Day.

Technique Used: Sophisticated regression models controlled for partisan identity, education level, age group differences, and geographic variation.

#### Key Findings:

The results show a clear connection between perceived immigrant threat and specific voting patterns:

Election Outcome: Traditional party loyalties were significantly altered in areas with high threat perception;

Demographic Shifts: This effect was most pronounced among certain demographic groups—specifically working-class men without college degrees.

#### Political Significance:

The findings suggest that immigration discourse can mobilize voters along identity lines rather than policy preferences.

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