How does exposure to refugees influence voting behavior?

This study examines Hungary during the 2015 refugee crisis, analyzing how short-term encounters with refugees affected attitudes and votes. Using data from multiple sources—state media reports, independent online news, and social media—we tracked exposure levels at Hungarian settlements.

Refugee Exposure by Settlement Level

We measured refugee passage through different communities to gauge impact.

Referendum & Election Results

Our analysis reveals a clear pattern: settlements with documented refugee exposure showed significantly higher anti-refugee voting in the 2016 national referendum. This effect faded quickly as distance from exposure increased.

Subsequent parliamentary elections confirmed this shift, showing that far-right opposition parties gained support while governing right-wing parties lost votes in exposed areas. Importantly, this suggests voters punished incumbents regardless of their actual immigration policy stance.

Survey Findings & Implications

Survey data reinforces these findings. Residents in areas with refugee exposure were more fearful and supportive of restrictive policies—though only among those identifying as right-wing.

This research demonstrates how fears related to migration, even when voters simultaneously favor harsher anti-immigration stances, can strategically impact electoral politics.