The rise of the China-led Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) presents a puzzle: why do states join an organization challenging U.S. dominance when they could wait? This paper argues that early members were politically distant from Washington, while later ones aligned with the United States or joined the existing ADB.

Political Distance

The study contends initial AIIB members sought to challenge American influence directly due to their limited ties—both internationally and domestically—with the U.S. These states reflect Beijing's explicit stance against established Western powers.

Later Membership Trends

Contrary patterns emerge for subsequent entrants:

• Democratic governance is more common among late members
• Existing ADB affiliates increase their chances of joining AIIB
• Voting similarity at the UN GA correlates strongly with U.S.-aligned membership

Evidence from Logit Models

Using statistical analysis, this research tests these propositions against countries' responses to the 2014 Memorandum of Understanding governing AIIB formation. Findings reveal a clear shift away from democratic states in early commitments toward institutional alignment with U.S.-based systems.