This study investigates how Swedish politicians respond to opinion polls using a survey experiment. Methodology

A survey experiment involving 1236 Swedish politicians exposed participants to frames where their party was either losing or gaining in the polls, without deception.

Key Findings

• Politicians experiencing perceived decline seek change regardless of whether it involves program adjustments or communication strategies.

• The impact of recent polling data is typically stronger than that of our experimental treatments.

• When considering only ideological radicalization versus moderation or maintaining current stance:

• Losing politicians prioritize moderate shifts over complete abandonment

• However, when comparing responses between losing and stable positions:

– Politicians in slipping polls favor moderate adjustments more strongly than those experiencing recent poll declines do.

– Our findings indicate that the strongest political response occurs when polling data suggests decline but experimental treatment offers hope for reversal.

Implications

This research provides insights into descriptive representation and the influence of opinion polls on democratic processes. The results suggest politicians respond strategically to poll outcomes, potentially adjusting policy positions or communication tactics based on perceived electoral support.