New insights into armed actors in civil wars reveal their relationships with governments evolve over time. Existing studies assumed these groups maintained fixed alignments throughout conflicts, but this overlooks crucial changes that shape outcomes.
Researchers introduce the Government and Armed Actors Relations Dataset (GAARD) — a detailed record of all major armed groups' fluctuating alignment between 1989 and 2007 across Africa, Asia-Pacific, and ME/NA regions. GAARD identifies three group-government interaction types: fighting with authorities, opposing them, or having no defined relationship.
This dataset allows scholars to track when each type of alignment shift occurred — crucial for understanding drivers behind such changes during conflicts:
* Pro-government shifts: When groups reconcile with the government
* Anti-government shifts: When non-aligned actors join opposition
* Relationship loss/gain: Changes in connections outside direct conflict
GAARD shows more than 25% of armed groups changed their alignment, opening doors to new research questions about civil conflicts.