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Why Did Voters Choose a Controversial Novice? Testing Clinton's Post-Election Analysis
Insights from the Field
US election 2016
defeat analysis
text analysis
campaign dynamics
American Politics
POP
1 Stata files
3 datasets
3 other files
1 text files
Dataverse
The Hillary Hypotheses: Testing Candidate Views of Loss was authored by Stephen Quinlan and Michael Lewis-Beck. It was published by Cambridge in POP in 2019.

# Why Trump Won

The 2016 election saw an unprecedented victory: Donald Trump, an experienced novice with no political science background, defeated Hillary Clinton.

## Our Approach

We analyze this through the lens of Clinton's perspective—specifically her claims in What Happened. We test a novel hypothesis about post-election narratives.

Our findings:

  • Most of Clinton's assumptions about losing are supported by evidence
  • The email controversy narrative (especially Comey's intervention) lacks strong substantiation

## Key Implications

This research offers insights into political campaigns and the dynamics behind electoral defeats. It highlights a gap in political science literature regarding how defeated candidates interpret their loss.

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Perspectives on Politics
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