How does a vulnerable state near civil wars avoid conflict contagion? Jordan, despite its risks, shows remarkably few jihadist attacks.

Context & Risk Factors:

* Located adjacent to Syria and Iraq where jihadists operate freely

* Faces economic weakness exacerbated by refugee influxes

* Hosts hundreds—if not thousands—of jihadists sympathetic to extremist groups

* Governed by a regime labeled 'traitors' by jihadists due to perceived alliances with enemies of Islam

The Puzzle:

Our research tests three hypotheses for the low level of jihadist spillover into Jordan.

Key Finding: Calibrated Repression:

We find this strategy, which we call "calibrated repression," is most significant. The policy involves:

* Repression & Co-optation: Selectively repressing IS-linked terrorist cells while co-opting other domestic jihadist elements when advantageous.

* Measured Force Use: Restraining violence against less urgent threats to maintain stability.

Significance:

This study offers crucial insights into counter-terrorism strategies and explains how states in high-risk environments can mitigate conflict spillover.