Retrospective voting is crucial for democratic accountability. The president's party is well-established to be rewarded or punished in national elections based on economic performance.
This study examines if voters hold politicians accountable for the local economy across all government levels. Using county-level economic data from 1969-2018 and election results, we analyze accountability at local, state, and federal offices.
Key Findings:
* Voters consider the entire national economy when evaluating presidential party performance in elections.
* Incumbents face voter consequences for weak economic conditions during House campaigns.
* Gubernatorial candidates are similarly held accountable by voters for state-level economic outcomes.
Our results show retrospective voting extends beyond just federal elections to local/state contests. This finding has broad implications across political science literature on accountability, representation, and electoral behavior.