The relationship between ethnic identity, insurgency, and civil war has long been debated in political science. This study examines how ethnic groups influence the likelihood of violent conflict by analyzing data from five ongoing insurgencies across multiple countries.

Ethnicity & Methods

🔍 Examined: Five contemporary insurgencies spanning diverse regions using qualitative case studies and comparative analysis

📝 Approach: Mixed-methods combining ethnographic fieldwork with quantitative pattern recognition

💻 Data Source: Archival records, news reports, and participant observation data from conflict zones

Key Findings

📊 Ethnic Heterogeneity often correlates with lower violence rates during insurgency phases

💥 Strong ethnic polarization increases the probability of escalating to full civil war

⚖️ Geopolitical boundaries frequently amplify existing ethnic tensions in fragile states

Implications & Significance

💡 The research suggests policymakers should consider ethnic fault lines when designing peace accords

🌐 Countries experiencing high ethnic fractionalization are at greater risk for state collapse

✅ These findings offer new insights into prevention strategies and post-conflict reconciliation efforts