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Presidents Get Rewarded Despite Voters' Deficit Claims
Insights from the Field
federal spending
regression discontinuity design
United States elections
co-partisan members
American Politics
APSR
2 Stata files
2 other files
Dataverse
The Influence of Federal Spending on Presidential Elections was authored by Douglas Kriner and Andrew Reeves. It was published by Cambridge in APSR in 2012.

Does increased federal spending translate into election votes? A county-level study from 1988 to 2008 reveals voters reward presidents for local funding, especially in battleground states. This finding challenges previous null results focused on Congress.

Funding Impact: Federal grants act as an electoral currency influenced by partisan responsibility and recipient characteristics.

Specifically:

  • Spends help incumbents gain support
  • Effect stronger in competitive states
  • Value depends on Congressional alignment (co-partisan members)

Voter Ideology Matters:

  • The spending reward is more pronounced among liberal/moderate voters
  • Conservative voters show less responsiveness to federal funds

This suggests a disconnect between public deficit concerns and actual voting behavior regarding targeted government spending.

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American Political Science Review
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