Nazi propaganda during Hitler's speeches captured scholarly imagination as a prime example of powerful campaign effects. Yet, historical empirical studies often showed weak impacts elsewhere. This article examines the most likely case—Germany leading up to 1933—for strong speech effects using extensive data from five national elections and a semi-parametric difference-in-differences approach.

Data & Methods: We analyze comprehensive records of Hitler's speeches during campaigns preceding his rise to power in 1927-1933 Germany.

Our findings are striking: Most speeches had negligible effects on Nazi electoral fortunes. Only the chaotic 1932 presidential runoff—marked by a short, intense campaign with little opposition—showed positive speech impacts.

Key Implications: This suggests charismatic leadership alone does not guarantee populist movement success in all contexts.