This study investigates the demobilizing effects of short jail sentences on voter turnout.

Data & Methods

Administrative criminal sentencing data was analyzed. A major county court system's random case assignment process provided exogenous variation for misdemeanor cases.

Key Findings

• Among first-time defendants, brief jail time significantly decreased voting in the next election by several percentage points.
• Racial disparities were stark: white defendants showed no decrease, while Black defendants experienced substantial turnout declines.
• The disparity appears linked to racial differences in arrest exposure prior to sentencing.

Why It Matters

These findings reveal large-scale, racially disparate voter demobilization resulting from even brief incarceration experiences.