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Insights from the Field

Why Social Democracy's Decline Tracks Industrial Workers' Numbers, 1918-2017


social democracy
industrial workers
public spending
election results
European Politics
APSR
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The Rise and Fall of Social Democracy, 1918-2017 was authored by Simon Hix, Giacomo Benedetto and Nicola Mastrorocco. It was published by Cambridge in APSR in 2020.

### 🔍 Tracking Support for Social Democracies

This study analyzes 31 countries from 1918 to 2017, tracing the electoral fortunes of social democratic parties through newly compiled national election results. By combining this dataset with extensive economic and social variables, we identify two primary drivers behind these parties' success: public-sector spending levels and manufacturing sector size.

### ⚖️ Surprising Correlation Found in Analysis

The research reveals that while both factors influenced past performance, their decline over time explains the significant drop in recent support for social democratic parties. Industrial workers—who historically formed a core constituency—and public-sector employees have become less likely to vote for these parties as manufacturing jobs decreased and industrial worker numbers shrunk.

### 🌍 Implications for Understanding Political Shifts

These findings suggest descriptive representation isn't just about elected officials but also connects voting patterns across generations. The decline in social democratic support appears tied not only to changing economic structures but also potentially represents a generational shift away from traditional party allegiances.

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