Elite cohesion is essential to authoritarian stability, yet high-level defections can threaten regimes. Analyzing 4,291 Russian ruling party candidates provides insights into elite integrity under autocracy.

Data & Methods:

This study utilizes a comprehensive dataset of 4,291 ruling party candidates in Russia. It employs quantitative analysis and hypothesis testing to examine elite behavior patterns.

Key Findings:

Defections increase when regimes face greater uncertainty about providing spoils. Ironically, anti-opposition tactics may create more vulnerabilities than they prevent. Defectors often include regime insiders with strong personal followings or business connections who can pursue independent political goals.

Why It Matters:

These findings highlight crucial tradeoffs in authoritarian survival strategies. The study demonstrates that seemingly contradictory approaches to managing elites and opposition can heighten defection risks, offering fresh insights into autocratic stability.