Civil wars have surged within states, yet standard theories assume opposition movements are unified.

This study challenges that assumption by examining how internal divisions affect bargaining with the state.

Key Argument: Fragmented groups face greater commitment problems and information asymmetry, increasing conflict likelihood.※

Data & Methods: New annual datasets track structural changes in self-determination movements.※

Findings: More fragmented groups show significantly higher rates of civil war onset and incidence.

* Fragmented opposition creates bargaining obstacles: commitment problems (states unsure unified action) and information asymmetry (fragmentation hinders clear assessment).※

* Standard models miss this critical reality.※

* This insight reshapes our understanding of civil war triggers.