For years, scholars have claimed that governments signal resolve through domestic audience costs. This piece challenges the assumption by proposing two distinct mechanisms: audiences penalize both inconsistent leaders and those threatening force upfront.

Experimental Approach

We designed an experiment to disentangle these rationales, drawing on insights from political psychology about public dispositions.

Key Findings

Our results show audience reactions differ significantly when punishing belligerence versus inconsistency. Importantly, the impact of audience costs depends heavily on the leader's specific constituency.

Implications for Research & Policy

This nuanced understanding suggests traditional models may overestimate the power of consistency-based signaling in crisis bargaining scenarios.