Does reliance on primary commodities drive civil conflict?

Do commodity price shocks cause armed conflict?

The "resource curse" theory posits that volatility in commodity prices destabilizes governments and heightens conflict risk. However, existing studies show conflicting results.

This meta-analysis examines 46 natural experiments using difference-in-difference designs to provide clarity on how specific types of commodities respond differently:

• Price increases for labor-intensive agricultural goods are linked to reduced conflict
• Oil price rises (a capital-intensive commodity) increase conflict likelihood
• Increases in prices for lootable artisanal minerals also provoke conflict

The findings consolidate evidence while revealing important nuances by commodity type. This approach helps distinguish robust effects from inconsistent ones, offering policymakers more precise guidance on economic vulnerabilities.

What's Next?

The analysis suggests future research should focus on:

• Differentiating between various types of primary commodities
• Investigating the specific timing and magnitude thresholds for price changes that trigger conflict
• Evaluating how government institutional strength moderates these relationships